We are bad at predicting what works in practice
Cognitive blind spots can make it hard to know which ideas will work for us.
How often do your ideas fail in practice? Cognitive biases distort our sense of which ideas will succeed.
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We often come up with ideas to improve our lives, whether as part of New Year’s resolutions, life design plans, or desired changes to our daily routines. We consider going to the gym three times a week to improve our health, choosing a certain field of study or career to bring fulfillment, or establishing a consistent morning routine to make daily life more satisfying. These ideas usually feel sensible, yet they often don’t work out in practice for us. External factors can play a role, like changing circumstances or a bit of bad luck. But all too often, we are bad at predicting what will work for us in practice.
Predicting what will work is like choosing a pair of shoes before you’ve walked in them.
Even our best ideas can fail for us. We often feel confident they will improve our lives, but that confidence could be an illusion. Mental blind spots and cognitive biases can mislead us about what will work. Being aware of these internal limits is the first step toward understanding why even sensible ideas sometimes fall short. Below are five common ways our minds mislead us, each illustrated with a relatable example. This is not an exhaustive list, but a small selection of patterns that show up often in everyday life.
👉 Expecting ideas to feel better than they do
In our minds, the idea looks perfect. We see ourselves jumping enthusiastically out of bed three times a week, cruising through golden morning sunlight to the gym, feeling energized and motivated by the thought of improving our fitness. In reality, we struggle to get out of bed, hit a traffic jam, and arrive drained of energy and motivation. We tend to expect things to go more smoothly than they do and to underestimate the obstacles we’ll face.
👉 Letting our feelings mislead us about what will work
In our minds, the idea feels exciting and promising. We imagine signing up for a challenging course, feeling eager and confident, picturing ourselves engaged in every lecture and motivated to finish every assignment. In reality, the excitement fades after the first week, deadlines pile up, and our initial confidence gives way to stress and distraction. Our feelings in the moment can make ideas seem more doable or appealing than they really are.
👉 Overlooking hidden assumptions
In our minds, the idea seems simple and doable. We imagine starting a morning meditation habit, picturing ourselves calm, focused, and slipping effortlessly into the routine before work. In reality, the kids need breakfast, emails pile up, and phone notifications distract us, leaving no quiet moment. We tend to overlook the hidden assumptions our ideas rely on, like having uninterrupted time, enough mental energy, or a quiet space.
👉 Focusing too narrowly on one idea
In our minds, the idea looks like the only solution. We decide that cutting out snacks between meals will solve our low energy, picturing ourselves energized and thriving all day without nibbling. In reality, cravings hit, social events tempt us, and sticking strictly to the plan becomes stressful. Other approaches, like having protein-rich snacks, timing meals better, or going for a short walk, could fit our life better. We often latch onto a single solution and overlook alternatives that could work better.
👉 Ignoring what our experience tells us
In our minds, the idea feels reasonable, even when our past experience points in a different direction. We decide that this time we’ll follow a consistent evening routine, picturing ourselves winding down calmly each night, reading a few pages, and going to bed on time. In practice, evenings fill up with unfinished tasks, screens, and small distractions, and the routine slowly fades away again. We tend to overlook what our own experience tells us about what we are likely to sustain.
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Because we are bad at predicting what will work for us, it helps to treat ideas like shoes: don’t commit without trying them on first. Instead of going all in, test them in small, realistic ways. If you’re thinking of starting a morning workout routine, try a single week with short sessions to see how it fits your schedule and energy. If you’re considering a big change to your diet, experiment with one meal a day rather than overhauling everything at once. Small trials like these help you see what actually fits your life, so you don’t waste unnecessary time and effort on ideas that sound like a great idea but fail in practice. The bigger the idea, the more important it is to give it a test run before fully committing.
